Space Agencies Report Increased Risk of Space Rock Striking Earth in 2032
2025-02-23
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1Scientists say the threat of a large space rock striking the Earth in 2032 has increased.
2Recent calculations suggest there is a small chance - perhaps around 1 to 3 percent - the space rock 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032.
3This also means there is around a 97 to 99 percent chance it will safely pass our planet in that year.
4The odds of a strike will likely continue to go up and down as the asteroid's path around the sun is better understood.
5And scientists say there is a good chance the risk will drop to zero.
6NASA and the European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object becomes impossible to see.
7Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again.
8Asteroids are space rocks orbiting the sun.
9Asteroids are much smaller than planets.
10Scientists believe they are the leftovers from the solar system's formation 4.6 billion years ago.
11There are millions of asteroids orbiting the sun between Mars and Jupiter.
12That area is known as the main asteroid belt.
13The asteroids sometimes get pushed out of the belt and can end up elsewhere.
14A telescope in Chile discovered the asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December.
15It is estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters across.
16NASA said observations by the Webb space telescope should provide a more exact measurement.
17At first, NASA and the European Space Agency put the odds of a strike at just over one percent.
18But later calculations suggested the odds had risen to 2 or even 3 percent.
19NASA described the likelihood of a strike as "extremely low."
20Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid's path around the sun, they warned that the odds will continue to change - and quite possibly fall to zero.
21"You don't have to be worried about anything. It's a curiosity," said Larry Denneau.
22He is a software engineer at the University of Hawaii working with ATLAS, a program to identify asteroids that might endanger Earth.
23That effort first spotted the asteroid.
24Denneau said, "Don't panic.Let the process play out, and we'll have a for-sure answer."
25In 2021, NASA said another possibly worrisome asteroid, Apophis, did not present a risk to Earth.
26NASA made the announcement after additional telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting Earth in 2068.
27Experts say it is too soon to worry about 2024 YR4.
28Paul Chodas is director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
29Chodas said in an email to the Associated Press,
30"No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected."
31Chodas added, "To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point."
32Since the asteroid's size and orbit are uncertain, it is unclear where it might hit and what the possible effects would be should it strike Earth.
33ESA said, if the asteroid is smaller, the effect might be similar to the Tunguska event that flattened thousands of square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908.
34But if the asteroid is larger, close to 100 meters, the effects "would be significantly worse."
35Chodas said once the Webb telescope measures the asteroid's size, NASA can predict "how serious an impact this asteroid could produce and how difficult a task it might be to deflect this asteroid."
36NASA already has some experience moving an asteroid.
37The space agency's Dart spacecraft hit a harmless asteroid in 2022.
38This was the first planetary defense test of its kind, changing the asteroid's orbit around its larger companion asteroid.
39I'm John Russell.
1Scientists say the threat of a large space rock striking the Earth in 2032 has increased. 2Recent calculations suggest there is a small chance - perhaps around 1 to 3 percent - the space rock 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032. This also means there is around a 97 to 99 percent chance it will safely pass our planet in that year. The odds of a strike will likely continue to go up and down as the asteroid's path around the sun is better understood. 3And scientists say there is a good chance the risk will drop to zero. 4NASA and the European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object becomes impossible to see. Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again. 5What is an asteroid? 6Asteroids are space rocks orbiting the sun. 7Asteroids are much smaller than planets. Scientists believe they are the leftovers from the solar system's formation 4.6 billion years ago. 8There are millions of asteroids orbiting the sun between Mars and Jupiter. That area is known as the main asteroid belt. The asteroids sometimes get pushed out of the belt and can end up elsewhere. 9How do scientists follow worrisome asteroids? 10A telescope in Chile discovered the asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December. It is estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters across. NASA said observations by the Webb space telescope should provide a more exact measurement. 11At first, NASA and the European Space Agency put the odds of a strike at just over one percent. But later calculations suggested the odds had risen to 2 or even 3 percent. NASA described the likelihood of a strike as "extremely low." 12Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid's path around the sun, they warned that the odds will continue to change - and quite possibly fall to zero. 13"You don't have to be worried about anything. It's a curiosity," said Larry Denneau. He is a software engineer at the University of Hawaii working with ATLAS, a program to identify asteroids that might endanger Earth. That effort first spotted the asteroid. Denneau said, "Don't panic. Let the process play out, and we'll have a for-sure answer." 14In 2021, NASA said another possibly worrisome asteroid, Apophis, did not present a risk to Earth. NASA made the announcement after additional telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting Earth in 2068. 15Should we worry about asteroid 2024 YR4? 16Experts say it is too soon to worry about 2024 YR4. 17Paul Chodas is director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Chodas said in an email to the Associated Press, "No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected." 18Chodas added, "To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point." 19Since the asteroid's size and orbit are uncertain, it is unclear where it might hit and what the possible effects would be should it strike Earth. ESA said, if the asteroid is smaller, the effect might be similar to the Tunguska event that flattened thousands of square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908. But if the asteroid is larger, close to 100 meters, the effects "would be significantly worse." 20Chodas said once the Webb telescope measures the asteroid's size, NASA can predict "how serious an impact this asteroid could produce and how difficult a task it might be to deflect this asteroid." 21NASA already has some experience moving an asteroid. The space agency's Dart spacecraft hit a harmless asteroid in 2022. This was the first planetary defense test of its kind, changing the asteroid's orbit around its larger companion asteroid. 22I'm John Russell. 23Marcia Dunn reported this story for the Associated Press. John Russell adapted it for VOA Learning English. 24______________________________________________________ 25Words in This Story 26odds -n. (pl.) the likelihood that something will happen 27curiosity -n. a strong desire to learn more about something 28panic - v. to be overcome with a powerful fear 29probability-n. the chance that an event will occur 30impact -n. an event in which one object strikes or crashes into another 31significantly - adv. in a major way 32deflect -v. to cause an object to move in another direction possibly by striking it and changing its path a little 33companion-n. an object that is closely connected to another, usually by gravity